Van der Poel in June, Hayter in August: Pogačar Breaking Hearts with Razor-Thin TT Victories

It seems staggering but the 0.09 winning margin of Tadej Pogačar Saturday wasn’t the closest of his career.

He beat Ethan Hayter (Soudal Quick-Step) by a fraction of a second on the opening stage of the Vuelta a España, breaking the Briton’s heart and leaving him utterly exasperated at the finish.

Hayter went from time trial leader to second-best in the blink of an eye. Less, even.

But, remarkably, two months ago another rider felt an even greater sense of could have been. Once again Pogačar was the party pooper, once again another rider would be left second-guessing every decision, every pedal stroke, every turn.

On June 20 Mathieu van der Poel was in the hot seat at the Tour de Suisse. He’d flown around the time trial in Aarburg, beating previous leader Tim Wellens by 12 seconds, and looked poised for victory.

Pogačar gave him a scare when he went five seconds quicker at the intermediate time check, but then lost some momentum in the second half of the course.

He appeared set to lose but pulled something special out close to the line, blitzing the closing segment to beat Van der Poel by 0.04 seconds.

Both winning margins are staggeringly small. To take one such victory by such a tiny amount is notable.

To take two in two months? That’s utterly remarkable, and something Pogačar put down to local knowledge in relation to Saturday’s effort.

“For sure I think that 0.09 happened when I passed my apartment because that is the most technical part of the route,” the Monaco resident said.

“I walk and cycle there every day. So even though it is completely different when it is for the race, still you race on your home roads and you know it super well. I think this helped me a lot today.”

It was evocative of his final day TT win in Nice at the 2024 Tour de France.

Pogačar was just 24 seconds ahead of rival Jonas Vingegaard at the halfway point, but then greatly inflated his margin to 1:04 on the technical downhill section to the finish line.

That too was thanks in part to his local knowledge of the roads.

A career first

Winning Saturday was notable. Pogačar has taken six Grand Tour victories thus far – five editions of the Tour, and the 2024 Giro d’Italia.

However he had never captured the opening stage of any of those races, making this a new experience.

“It is a weird feeling to win a time trial on the first stage, and by such a small margin,” he admitted.

“I was not expecting it.”

That win thrust him into the red jersey of race leadership and only strengthened the pre-race speculation that he could lead the Vuelta from start to finish.

Such chatter was due in part to the lack of big rivals such as Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel at the Vuelta. There are some good names in the field, but nobody in particular that stands out as a clear rival to Pogačar.

Still, speaking before the race, he downplayed such talk.

“I’m going to do my best, but the competition for the time trial on the first day is very strong,” he said. “There are a few fast and technically skilled riders who can ride very hard on this course.

“I just want to start the race, get a feel for how things are going. I don’t necessarily see it as a stage that suits me perfectly.”

Having won that TT, though, what now are the chances?

Sunday may be very important in determining that.

A tough day but is it tough enough?

The stage from Monaco to Manosque has 3028 vertical meters, which makes it far from easy for his rivals. However there are seven riders within ten seconds of his lead, including Hayter who is just 0.09 behind, and Josh Tarling (Netcompany Ineos), who is four seconds back.

Visma Lease a Bike duo Christophe Laporte and Wout van Aert are well within striking distance, as are others.

With a bonus sprint with 35km to go and another at the finish line, it’s possible for him to lose the lead even if no big splits form.

He said as such on Saturday when asked if he could hold the red jersey all the way to the end.

“Ah, it is going to be tough already,” he said. “Tomorrow I think some guys that are close on time can do maybe breakaway or a sprint for bonus seconds. Tomorrow is going to be tight for the red jersey, I think, and we could see some shuffle in the GC.”

Still, UAE directeur sportif Matxin Joxean Fernandez appeared a little more optimistic. Prior to the Vuelta Pogačar had suggested he might hold back in some ways because of his next targets. “I am always thinking that I still have three big races after the Vuelta: Worlds, Europeans, and Lombardia,” he said.

However Fernandez downplayed the notion of looking further down the line at those later events.

“Being in the Vuelta is the only thing,” he stated. “Being in the Vuelta, enjoy the day, enjoy the moment and tomorrow is another day. In this moment we are in the Vuelta and focused on the Vuelta.”

If Pogačar is in red Sunday evening, things could get more straightforward. Monday’s stage to Font Romeu is the first big summit finish and he could put serious time into his rivals.

If he and his team are secretly interested in holding red all the way to the final weekend, that stage is a very good option to build a buffer and to tighten his grip.