Tense Tour Mountains Battle Goes Right Down to the Wire Between Pogačar and Carapaz

Just as it did in 2020 and 2024, the battle for the Tour de France polka dot jersey is coming down to a big fight between Richard Carapaz and Tadej Pogačar.

In 2020, the year Pogačar first won the Tour, the Slovenian overhauled Carapaz on stage 20, just one day before the race ended in Paris.

Four years later the balance tiled Carapaz’s way with an epic long range breakaway on stage 19 to Isola 2000. He gobbled up a staggering 64 KOM points out leap from fifth to first in that classification, overhauling Pogačar.

The Ecuadoran rider is once again in the polka dots by a huge day of effort, being clear of the peloton for 128km and hoovering up mountains points right until the end.

“Today was a really tough day,” the EF Education-EasyPost rider said at the finish. “We went looking for the breakaway right from the start and managed to get up there. Ben [Healy] and Alex [Baudin] did an incredible job, and Sean [Quinn] was with me the entire time bringing up water and ice.”

Carapaz was on a real mission, finishing second to polka dot jersey-wearer Valentin Paret-Peintre on the first two climbs, then distancing the Frenchman with 37km to go.

And while Tadej Pogačar—who was actually leading the mountains competition, but who couldn’t don that jersey because he was wearing yellow—did gap Carapaz inside the final kilometer to win the stage, the latter’s KOM victory on the day’s penultimate climb plus his third place at Alpe d’Heuz was enough.

He was once again leading the mountains classification, by a slender, suspenseful one point over Pogačar.

“I felt I had the legs to fight for the stage, but the breakaway group didn’t cooperate very well toward the end,: Carapaz said. “Plus, Pogačar simply had an extra change of pace.

“Still, I’m really happy – this polka dot jersey is something we’ve been chasing across all three weeks, and holding it is deeply special.

“At the bottom of Alpe d’Huez, we really believed the stage win was possible.

“It turned out to be extremely brutal, but now we have a clear mission all the way to Paris.”

‘We are giving it everything’

The mission Carapaz is speaking of is one that will remain full of suspense on Saturday. A blistering concluder is in store, with the hardest day of racing of this year’s Tour.

Three hors categorie climbs are on the cars, namely the iconic Col de la Croix de Fer and the Col du Galiber, the newer Col de Sarenne, plus the first category Col du Télégraphe.

They offer a huge haul of points to strong riders. Carapaz will undoubtedly try to get up the road early once again.

He’ll be spurred on by the jersey he will be wearing, and will hope that Pogačar limits any aggression until later in the stage.

“Having polka dots is a proud and happy moment, and a truly special one for me,” he said.

“You work so hard every day just for moments like this. The team is super happy. This jersey makes it all worth it – my teammates worked so hard for this moment and for this podium.

“We still have a long way to go to Paris, but we’re giving it everything.”

There’s an intriguing extra element to the battle: Paret-Peintre slipped back towards the end of stage 19 but is now just seven points behind.

With a staggering 70 points on offer Saturday, he’s not out of the picture at all. If he gets into the break and Carapaz does not, the competition could be blown wide open.

Pedersen zoning in on final points win

A battle that is still raging but seems much more clear cut is the points competition. Mads Pedersen is not as fast as Jasper Philipsen in a head to head but he has much greater versatility. He has used this to mop up points in intermediate sprints and more selective finishes.

The Lidl-Trek rider has been leading the points contest ever since he won stage 4 and while Philipsen narrowed the gap to just seven points when he took stage 17, Pedersen has been on the attack in the two days since.

He’s won both intermediate sprints and heads into stage 20 a promising 57 points ahead.

Saturday’s stage is another very tough one and if Pedersen can take more points again early on, the final victory will be all but confirmed.

“I’m proud of myself and proud of the whole team,” he said. “We made a plan a bit optimistic, but in the end it worked out and we managed to get another 25 points. We gained back the big loss we had a few days ago and it’s really nice.

“It would have been nice not to make the big mistake the other day [when he finished only eighth behind Philipsen], but we will try again tomorrow and maybe seal it there.

“If not, it’s gonna be a good fight in Paris, but it’s way more comfortable than it was some days ago.”