Vingegaard’s Dilemma: Chase Another Giro or Risk Everything Against Pogačar?

The Giro d’Italia just gave Jonas Vingegaard plenty of reasons to return in 2027 with a route that keeps pointing uphill.

A mountain time trial, the Mortirolo and Gavia, and a penultimate showdown on Monte Zoncolan serve up the defending champion a near-perfect course to defend pink as Visma-Lease a Bike maps out his return from a season-ending crash.

The Tour de France? Some are calling it the Anti-Pogačar Tour, but in many ways, it looks even less inviting for Vingo.

With just three summit finishes and 71km of individual time trialing, the 2027 Tour offers fewer chances for the Dane to turn the screws with his Pogi-killer climbing power that delivered his two yellow jerseys.

So heading into the winter team camps, Visma and Vingegaard face a season-deciding quandary.

Would another run at pink give him a better chance of winning a grand tour in 2027 before another July clash with Tadej Pogačar?

Or would another Giro take too much out of him and leave him empty in his pursuit of yellow?

The urgent question facing the Visma brain-trust now is how to win another grand tour while also giving Vingegaard his best shot at beating Pogačar.

Growing pressure from Pogačar and new rivals

Vingegaard is being squeezed from all directions as the 2026 season is a wrap.

He’ll be 30 in December, Pogačar remains his bête noire, and a new generation of GC riders is nipping at his heels.

King Pog keeps raising the bar in front of him, and after signing a blockbuster contract extension, he isn’t going anywhere. Behind him, Remco Evenepoel, Isaac del Toro, and Paul Seixas are pumping new hype and ambition into the grand tour conversation.

The Dane who twice beat Pogačar at the Tour now finds himself defending his place as the Slovenian’s most dangerous rival.

Vingegaard boasts four grand tour victories, yet some are already writing him off as the best candidate to crack the Pogačar code.

That’s a strange place to be for someone who ran away with the pink jersey just a few months ago.

And it puts huge pressure on Visma and Vingegaard for the choices they have to make for 2027.

Another pink jersey would underline how good he still is. A third yellow would silence those already writing him off.

Why the 2027 Giro route suits Vingegaard

So far, neither Vingegaard nor his team is giving much away.

Visma’s official reaction Tuesday to the Giro route offered zero clues. Head of racing Marc Reef praised the course without revealing the team’s plans for 2027.

“To win this Giro d’Italia, you need to have a wide range of qualities. That makes it a really exciting challenge,” Reef said. “We will study the route carefully before putting together the best possible plan.”

This year, Visma and Vingegaard took plenty of heat for attempting the Giro-Tour double.

The first part worked like a charm, with Vingegaard riding away with pink to complete the grand tour sweep.

The Tour went off the rails when he gave up time to Pogačar in the first week and then crashed out on stage 15 with a broken clavicle. He hasn’t raced since.

Team boss Richard Plugge told TV2 after the Tour reveal last month that the yellow jersey remains the central goal for the Killer Bees.

Whether a Giro defense fits into that calculation remains the big question.

Never one to go over the top on social media or give too many interviews, Vingo is leaving everyone guessing about his grand tour plans. No decisions have been announced.

Why Vingo still has a shot at the 2027 Tour de France

Vingo remains the only rider to beat Pogačar at the Tour, winning in 2022 and 2023. Since then, the Slovenian has been unstoppable with three straight yellow jerseys, but Vingegaard has never given up.

Yet some are already suggesting that he will have a hard time even hitting the Tour podium in 2027 on a course that, on paper, doesn’t favor his strengths.

Ex-pro Michael Rasmussen believes the time trial-heavy, summit-light Tour route reflects the evolving hierarchy inside the elite men’s peloton.

“I don’t think ASO still sees Vingegaard as Pogačar’s main challenger,” Rasmussen said on Viaplay. “I see more potential in the riders coming up behind him.”

Yet fewer summit finishes don’t mean Vingegaard won’t a fighting chance for yellow.

He’s not that bad at time trialing, and the Tour still includes a late showdown on Col du Portet featuring the Tourmalet and 5,400m of climbing. That’s Vingegaard’s happy place.

And who could have guessed Pogačar would have crashed out of the Vuelta a España?

Visma remains one of the most successful teams of the decade, with grand tour victories hard-wired into its DNA. It won’t give up on yellow easily.

The ultimate question for Vingegaard and Visma is what matters more: winning another Giro or going all in for a third yellow jersey?

That could make for a few sleepless nights inside the Visma bus.

Will Visma attempt another Giro-Tour double in 2027?

There’s another wrinkle: This year’s Giro-Tour bet ended without a clear resolution for the brain-trust inside the Visma bus.

Visma won the opening team time trial in Barcelona, but Vingegaard steadily lost time and then crashed out two weeks later at the foot of the Alps. And even though he was already four minutes-plus behind Pogačar, the team’s data wizards never got the final week of racing to complete their assessment.

Missing from much of this discussion is Vingegaard himself.

The last official team update came on August 17, when Visma confirmed Vingegaard wouldn’t race again this year. Since then, it’s been crickets and his 2027 program remains under wraps.

It’s hard to imagine Vingo not racing the Tour.

He’s Visma’s marquee grand tour leader, and winning the yellow jersey remains the assignment. And King Pog already confirmed where he will be in July.

Would going back to the Giro be read as waving the white flag for July? Some will inevitably see it that way.

But betting everything on the Tour and coming back empty-handed carries its own risk.

Repeating the double in 2027 would come with the same risk and potential reward.

The upside could be another grand tour feather in the team’s cap at the Giro — potentially a fifth for Vingegaard and an 11th for the Killer Bees since 2019.

The dilemma is how much would chasing another pink jersey cost him in the inevitable showdown with Pogačar in July when it really counts.