Tour de France 2027: What Do Extra TT Kms Mean for Evenepoel’s Prospects?

Third in 2024, second this year. Is Remco Evenepoel heading towards victory in the 2027 Tour de France?

His 6:26 deficit to Tadej Pogačar this time around suggests otherwise, but there are three factors which could narrow the gap considerably.

Firstly, there’s Pogačar’s big crash at the Vuelta a España. He suffered a concussion plus fractures to his neck and shoulder, and was forced to abandon the defense of his world and European championship titles.

While the Tour is still over eight months away, Tour de France race director Christian Prudhomme has suggested that fall might have a long-term effect on the five-time winner.

Correct or not, it’s clear his injuries and his curtailed season were less than ideal.

The second factor is the age gap between the two riders. Pogačar is now 28 and, if he follows the usual pattern seen with many athletes, he could see his performances start to plateau.

Evenepoel is a year and four months younger and, at 26, should continue to improve.

The third consideration is the gift the Tour de France organizers handed Evenepoel this week. Namely, the most time trial kilometers to feature in the race since 2012.

This year’s Tour had just 26.1 individual kilometers against the clock.

Next July will see more than double that, with the two TT’s totaling 71km.

That’s the most in the past 15 years.

That, plus the fact that there are just three summit finishes, two less than this season, means that Evenepoel will feel good about his chances.

A thumbs up from his team

While the Belgian was not at this week’s Tour presentation, his Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe team gave a big thumbs up to the route.

Directeur sportif Zak Dempster referenced the two races against the clock and said those will help fight for the maillot jaune.

“The first week promises intense racing, where staying out of trouble will be key,” he said.

“The long ITT (individual time trial) at the end of that first week offers us a great opportunity to make an early statement right away. This could be crucial heading into the Alps in the second week.”

And while Evenepoel will then be up against Pogačar and the other favorites in the high mountains, he has a chance to gain further time in the other ITT.

“The second time trial is another highlight of this route,” Dempster continued.

“We welcome the return of more individual time trial kilometers, as this adds another dimension to the race and makes the battle for yellow even more open and exciting. Overall, it’s a route that plays to our strengths and gives us every reason to aim for yellow.”

As for team CEO Ralph Denk, he too was upbeat.

“Remco is the best time triallist at the moment, world champion, and definitely he would be happy. We have two time trials here, more than 70k in TT,” he told VTM Nieuws.

However Denk played down suggestions that three rather than five mountain-top finishes made it an easier Tour in terms of climbing.

“I see this a bit differently because we have a stage of more than 5000 climbing meters,” he said. “It is a super tough one. And there are other climbs here. Let’s see. Let’s evaluate in detail. I will not confirm this is an easy Tour de France.”

“It is always the goal from our team to battle to the best, and let’s see. But for this answer, we need to have a closer look at the route.”

Unbeaten against the clock

Evenepoel completed the season with a fine statistic. He rode five individual time trials this season, and he won each of them.

He took the TT at the Tour and also won his fourth world championship title, then defended his European champs crown.

He ended off the year with a resounding victory in the Chrono des Nations TT. Evenepoel finished a staggering 2:11 ahead of Jay Vine (UAE Emirates-XRG) there, and said afterwards that everything came together perfectly.

“The handling, the speed and the feeling of being one with the bike all felt really good. Looking ahead to next year, it was all very promising,” he stated.

That kind of performance is why former professional Jan Bakelandts is predicting huge gains in the Tour.

“Remco is genuinely the best time triallist in the world,” he stated in his HLN.be column. “I wouldn’t rule out him taking two minutes out of Pogačar across those two time trials, provided he can reproduce the level he showed at the world championships.

“That’s crucial: he’ll have to be just as brilliant as he was in Montreal, because Pogačar’s track record in the Tour is also astonishingly strong.”

It’s a valid point. Despite Evenepoel’s far greater pedigree as a TT rider, Pogačar limited his losses to 28 seconds in the Tour’s individual time trial this year.

That was over a distance of 26.1km, meaning he gave up just over one second per kilometer.

If he puts in the same kind of performances across the two TTs next summer he will surrender around one minute 11 seconds.

Is that enough for Evenepoel to win?

His team will hope so, his fans too.

But others such as five time Tour de France winner Bernard Hinault aren’t so sure.

“This Tour is still too hard for him,” he told Nieuwsblad. “This year he has made a nice progression. He had a lower weight and climbed a lot better. But sharp attacks uphill he does not tolerate. Evenepoel is a steady climber. I think he can win stages next year, especially the two time trials.

“But I don’t believe in the general classification. There’s just one that’s better than the rest. And Pogačar will want revenge for the Vuelta.”

Still, Hinault is aware that nothing is guaranteed in sport. He knows pro cycling very well, but also understands that surprises can happen.

“I could be wrong,” he accepted. “And Evenepoel himself must think that he can make it.”

That possibility will sustain the Belgian over the winter months, giving him focus and additional self-belief as he builds towards 2027 and his best Tour prospects thus far.