Ranking the Favorites for UCI Road World Championships

Updated August 28, 2026 07:07AM

With 30 days until the men’s road race, it’s still way too early to know. But that doesn’t mean it’s not worth procrastinating over. The race for the rainbow jersey is looming into view.

An important part of those procrastinations? How each rider is preparing for the big day in Montréal.

Historically, the road to road worlds matters. Riders hoping to take a world title typically tailor their program to be prime for that one day.

This year, the men couldn’t be more divided in their path toward the September 27 road race.

Pogačar, Mads Pedersen, and Wout van Aert are defying history by racing the Vuelta a España.

Meanwhile, Remco Evenepoel, Paul Seixas, and Isaac del Toro are keeping it trad by turning toward the Canadian GPs for their final tune-ups.

Pogačar at the Vuelta, Van der Poel on the MTB: Balancing risk and reward

Of course, there’s no one best way to do it, but history has shown the Vuelta a España is definitely not the way. In the past 10 years, only Evenepoel in 2022 and Alejandro Valverde in 2018 have raced for red and then won rainbows.

Even Pogačar – the type of rider who tears up every blueprint he can find – is cognizant of his calendar problem.

“I shouldn’t finish the Vuelta completely destroyed,” he said at the start of the race.

The fatigue of a three-week race is significant – even for the GOAT. He’s currently racing the Vuelta in cruise mode, but 3,300km of in the saddle is never going to be easy.

And after his descending misfire on stage 6, let’s not contemplate Pogačar’s exposure to risk.

Historically, an August stage race and the mid-September Canadian GPs have proven the best way to peak for the road worlds.

And this year, the mid-September Canadian classics are the most obvious route to the road worlds.

The punchy Montréal GP is a perfect test piece for the world champs two weeks later. Riders can hunker down in Montréal after the Grand Prixs and recon the road worlds route as much as they want.

But in modern cycling, old rules and common sense can mean nothing. Recovery, fueling, and medical science is making almost anything seem possible.

Ranking the favorites for road worlds: A way-too-early assessment

With all that in mind, here’s our way-too-early ranking of the road worlds contenders.

It weighs past form, current fitness, and tweaks that for what they’re doing next.

For context, the 274km men’s road race course packs around 3,700m ascent. The race will be decided on 12 loops of a hilly circuit that features a shallow 2km climb and a steeper ramp reaching 11 percent.

1. Tadej Pogačar, 27 (Slovenia)

Last race: Tour de France (1st overall)
Current race: Vuelta a España (currently 1st overall)
Next race: Road worlds
2025 road worlds: 1st

Racing the Vuelta a España just weeks before his rainbow jersey defense? No problem.

If Pogačar continues to rout the Vuelta at the rate he has been in week 1, he might be able to ease back in week 3 and recover. Plus, Pogačar doesn’t dig so deep into the well as his rivals. When you’ve got a 6.9w/kg FTP, everything is easy.

And Pogačar is no stranger to Montréal. He’d have won the GP three times already if he didn’t gift the 2025 edition to Brandon McNulty.

Nobody will be getting any gifts from Pogačar on September 27. He’s poised to follow Peter Sagan with a historic three-peat.

2. Remco Evenepoel, 26 (Belgium)

Last races: Clasica San Sebastian (1st), Tour de France (2nd overall)
Next races: Canadian GPs, road worlds TT.
2025 road worlds: Road race: 2nd / time trial: 1st

It’s popular to poo-poo Remco Evenepoel, but nobody can question the Belgian Bullet as he heads toward Montréal.

And significantly, Montréal has been circled red on his calendar since the spring. This is no side-quest.

The explosive hilly course suits Evenepoel better than the hugely hard 2025 race in Kigali and next year’s race in the Alps. There’s also the prospect of a record fourth straight time trial title on the line.

If Evenepoel is going to unite the belts with a rare TT-road race rainbow jersey double, it’s this September. That’s why he shaped his summer around the champs and rolled his “race less-train more” blueprint from the Tour directly into “Project Canada.”

If the strategy proves as successful in September as it did in July, he could fly out of Montréal with two gold medals.

3. Mathieu van der Poel, 31 (Netherlands)

Last races: MTB Les Gets (2nd), Tour de France (2 x stages)
Next races: MTB world championsips, Canadian GPs [TBD]
2025 road worlds: Did not race

Mathieu van der Poel is a king of one-day racing. Only he and sometimes Wout can resist Pogacar, and that means a lot.

The problem for MVDP’s chances in Montréal? All them hills. With 3,700m of climbing, the Montréal course is pushing what’s possible for the big Dutchman.

All that Montréal vert is more of an obstacle to Van der Poel’s road race chances than the rooty, rocky risks that riddle the Val di Sole course he’ll shred Sunday at MTB worlds.

However, all that said – MVDP earns a spot high in the rankings. It’s impossible to put a rider with his pedigree any lower.

4. Isaac del Toro, 22 (Mexico)

Last races: Lidl Deutschland Tour (1st overall), Hamburg Classic (43rd), Tour de France (3rd overall)
Next races: Canadian GPs
2025 road worlds: 7th

Isaac del Toro is essentially a Diet Pogačar. Torito can do everything his trade teammate can do, but about 90 percent as well. And that instantly vaults him high in the rankings for a worlds road race that couldn’t be designed better for him.

Del Toro hasn’t looked so convincing since he came back from the Tour de France.

He showed willingness with his attack in the Hamburg Classic, but it didn’t stick. He was pipped to a stage win by Giulio Pellizarri at the Deutschland Tour before he overhauled the Italian for the overall.

If he can it around next month at the Canadian GPs in his final road worlds tune-up, he’s good for 4th.

5. Paul Seixas, 19 (France)

Last race: Tour de France (4th overall)
Next races: Canadian GPs
2025 road worlds: 13th

We already know the sky’s the limit for Paul Seixas. That’s why the French national team is putting all its chips behind a rider who will turn 20 only 3 days before the 2026 road worlds.

That said, it’s tough to split the difference between Seixas and Isaac del Toro in these way-too-early rankings.

Seixas will bring a blockbuster French team, while Del Toro will have to freelance for Mexico. However, France’s pure climber might have preferred bigger, longer mountains over the punchy hills of Canada.

The most important question for Seixas is how well he recovered after going deep in his debut grand tour. He’s not raced since he finished 4th in Paris, so we won’t know until the Canadian GPs.

6. Wout van Aert, 31 (Belgium)

Last race: Belgian gravel championships (2nd), Tour of Denmark (1st overall)
Current race: Vuelta a España
Next race: Road worlds
2025 road worlds: Did not race

Wout van Aert is hyped for road worlds, so you should be hyped for Wout ripping up road worlds.

The race in Montréal has been top of Van Aert’s agenda since January, and he doesn’t see the hilly course as a problem.

The Flemish favorite was so buoyed after he blazed through the Tour of Denmark he was even tipping his own chances for a rainbow jersey.

But is the course too tough for the Big Belgian? He, Mathieu, and Mads will be pushed to the limit by a ramp-laden race better suited to the lightweights – including Van Aert’s own teammate, Remco.

Van Aert is showing this week at the Vuelta a España he’s got the legs to win a rainbow jersey. After beating Pogačar last year in Paris at the Tour de France and again this spring in Roubaix, you know it’s a possibility.

But WVA will need to have a perfect race in Montréal – and maybe he’ll need Evenepoel to falter – for it to happen.

7. Quinn Simmons, 25 (USA)

Last races: Leadville 100 MTB (9th), Tour de France (A billion km in the break and “best teammate” prize)
Next races: Philadelphia Cycling Classic, Canadian GPs
2025 road worlds: DNF

Quinn Simmons doesn’t have the huge palmarès of all the other riders in this ranking. But he’s got everything else he needs to snatch a wildcard elite rainbow jersey to match his junior stripes from 2019.

Simmons will bring raw power and ridiculous self-belief to road worlds. He’ll likely also have a solid U.S. team to support him over the border in Canada.

“Captain America” blazed a trail through the Tour de France. He was the best breakaway rider across all terrain. And he’s got history with Montréal – only the Tadej Pogačar-Brandon McNulty double punch could beat him last year in the Grand Prix.

The most important thing for Simmons? He’s not scared of anyone. If the bigs make a move in Montréal, you know he’ll follow.

Most of the time, Simmons’ overconfidence bites him. He’s flown too close to the sun many times before.

8. Mads Pedersen, 30 (Denmark)

Last race: Tour de France (stage win, green jersey)
Current race: Vuelta a España
Next races: Road worlds
2025 road worlds: Did not race

Montréal is pushing the limits of what’s possible for the Great Dane, no matter how dominant he was at the Tour de France.

He admitted this week he’s a bit cooked after his romp to the maillot vert at the Tour. He’s already resigned himself to playing domestique and isn’t dominating the race like he normally would.

The hilly course stacks the odds against Pedersen for the 2026 road worlds. Fatigue stacks them higher.

Pedersen will need to be more than 100 percent to hit the podium in Montréal. He scrapes into the top-8 based on his palmarès alone.

Honorable mentions

Tom Pidcock, Richard Carapaz, Mattias Skjelmose, Ben Healy, Juan Ayuso, Michael Matthews, Michael Woods (yes, he’s back on the road).

One Month to Montréal Road Worlds: Ranking the Favorites for the Rainbow Jersey