Power Analysis: Paul Seixas' Lombardia Performance Puts the Pro Peloton on Notice

For the first time since 2020, a rider not named Tadej Pogačar was going to win Il Lombardia. It was the last Monument of the season, a tricky race to win at a time of year when many riders have already booked their flights for the off-season. Add to that the stress of international travel since almost the entire Lombardia start list had just been in Montreal for the UCI Road World Championships.

A few riders did the triple, racing Road Worlds, the European Championships, and Il Lombardia. Remco Evenepoel and Giulio Ciccone were among those riders, but there was a key name missing from the Euro Champs start list: Paul Seixas. The Frenchman had just celebrated his 20th birthday, and after cramping out of the top 10 at Road Worlds, Seixas decided to skip the European Championships to prepare for Il Lombardia. Whoever made that decision deserves a raise because Seixas went on to win the season’s final Monument in dominant fashion.

But before we get to the key moment of the race, we have to rewind to the beginning of Il Lombardia. The 2026 Il Lombardia was new and unexpected, featuring a 239-kilometer route from Bergamo to Como. The parcours was significantly different from previous editions of the race, this time featuring four hard climbs in the opening 86km, and finishing with three punchy climbs in the finale.

Tadej Pogačar has won multiple editions of Il Lombardia by attacking on 15- to 20-minute climbs, but this year’s race was going to be different. Not only was Pogačar missing from the start list, but the toughest climb in the finale was only 11 to 12 minutes long.

The Civiglio began with 21km to go and it would be the launchpad for climbers like Seixas, Isaac del Toro, Ciccone, and Enric Mas. Del Toro was one of the pre-race favorites, and the Mexican has looked incredibly strong all year, especially on steep and punchy climbs. However, the fatigue of a long season seemed to catch up with del Toro who completely imploded and missed out on a top 20.

Fatigue was perhaps the most decisive factor in this year’s Il Lombardia because we did not see career-best performances by any of the riders, including Seixas. That’s because the lead-in to the Civiglio was five hours and 215 kilometers long. Ben Healy, a lightweight rider who weighs slightly less than Seixas and Del Toro (62 vs 64 kg), burned more than 4,800 kJ before the Civiglio. That is a massive amount of fatigue in the legs before an all-out 11-minute effort, and we quickly saw what that meant for the majority of the field.

Healy – Lead-in to the Civiglio

• Time: 5h 16m 12s
• Average Power: 258w (NP 313w)
• Energy Burned: 4,830 kJ

Long climb with 200km to go: 23 minutes at 375w (6.1w/kg)

UAE Team Emirates-XRG had been pushing the pace on previous climbs, but at the base of the Civiglio, they suddenly disappeared. Del Toro was getting dropped, and Evenepoel was sliding backwards. Two of the pre-race favorites were slowly imploding, but then a fresh face emerged at the front of the field.

Seixas took the lead with more than 2km to go on the Civiglio and began to set his own tempo. Tom Pidcock was one of the closest riders to Seixas’ wheel, but the Brit was slowly squeezed off as Seixas settled in at 7w/kg. Velon posted Seixas’ data from the first part of the Civiglio, and we can make an educated guess about the Frenchman’s average power on the penultimate climb.

The Civiglio was roughly 4km at 10%, with a steady gradient that hardly fluctuated for the duration of the climb. Using Seixas’ Strava data, we can see that his VAM hardly changed throughout the ascent, showing that he was riding at a steady pace of nearly 450w.

Seixas – Civiglio

• Time: 11:54
• Estimated Power: ~7.1w/kg
• First 2:30 of the Civiglio: 460w (7.2w/kg)

Healy climbed the Civiglio at 6.7w/kg and he was 48 seconds slower than Seixas. The only riders who were able to break away from the rest of the peloton were Ciccone and Mas, who crested the Civiglio more than 30 seconds behind Seixas.

There was still one more climb to go, but instead of collapsing like he did at Road Worlds, Seixas looked just as strong as he did on the Civiglio. The Frenchman actually gained time on his rivals, putting 11 seconds into Healy who was attacking in the chase group and doing 6.7w/kg for six minutes on the final climb.

Seixas cruised to victory in Como, nearly a minute ahead of Mas while Ciccone rounded out the podium. Evenepoel led home the chase group one minute and 20 seconds behind Seixas, further evidence of just how dominant Seixas’ ride had been.

To put this into context, the Civiglio was far from the best Seixas we’ve ever seen. Of course, there was plenty of fatigue in the legs, but we also know that Seixas is capable of more than 7.1w/kg for 11 minutes. Jonas Vingegaard has bested those numbers on multiple occasions, while a healthy Pogačar could produce this effort on an average training ride.

There are hundreds of professional cyclists who can do 7w/kg for 20 minutes fresh. Doing the same numbers after 4,000 kJ…that’s what separates the good from the great. Seixas didn’t arrive at the base of Civiglio fresh, but we also know that Pogačar can produce 99% of his fresh numbers after five hours of racing. That is what currently separates Seixas from Pogačar.

The duo are head and shoulders above the rest of the peloton, but the Slovenian still has the edge due to superior fatigue resistance. It’s understandable, of course, because Seixas just turned 20 while Pogačar has been a professional cyclist for nearly a decade.

Fresh performance values tend to be more related to genetics and natural talent. Fatigue resistance is built with years and years of endurance training. Pogačar has the advantage for now, but Seixas is catching up quickly. There were reports last winter that Seixas was improving at a rate of 20w per month, and while that rate has certainly slowed, it has not stopped. If the Frenchman only gains a few watts per month, it won’t be long until he catches up to Tadej Pogačar.